A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
